Tesla's earnings beat didn't hold up overnight. TSLA fell 5.0% to $367.20 in premarket trading on Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026, Investing.com reported, after closing Wednesday at $386.47. Yahoo Finance said that, if the drop held after the opening bell, it would be the stock's biggest one-day loss in nearly seven weeks. CNBC put the premarket decline at about 4% and noted the stock is down about 14% this year.

Why it's falling

Tesla beat on adjusted earnings (48 cents a share) and posted $1.53 billion of free cash flow, but investors focused on the outlook. Tesla cut its 2026 capex forecast to about $20 billion from more than $25 billion, Musk set a goal of 5 million vehicle sales a year by the end of the decade, well below his earlier 20 million projection, and meaningful robotaxi revenue isn't expected until 2027-2028, Investing.com reported. "Elon Musk tempered expectations on the Optimus ramp-up expectations and Robotaxi tangible revenue impacts for a year, weighing on the stock," William Blair's Jed Dorsheimer (Market Perform) wrote, per CNBC.

What analysts did

  • Piper Sandler: raised its target to $475 (Investing.com).
  • TD Cowen: Buy, $460 target kept, citing better auto margins, the largest order backlog in four years and FSD on more than 75% of North American deliveries (Yahoo Finance).
  • Canaccord Genuity: Buy, target raised to $442 from $410 (CNBC).
  • JPMorgan: Neutral, target raised to $430 from $415; called the quarter "incrementally positive" (The Fly).
  • UBS: Neutral, target raised to $425 from $391 (Yahoo Finance).
  • Truist: Hold, $370 target unchanged; said Tesla lowered capex "but ramped OpEx instead" (CNBC).
  • Goldman Sachs: Neutral, $360 target; expects profitability and free cash flow to stay "somewhat pressured" and sees valuation "as full" (CNBC).
  • HSBC: Reduce, $157 target (CNBC).

Update, 6:53 AM PT: Reuters on the spending pullback

Reuters also put the premarket slide at 5% and tied it to Tesla's lower capex forecast. "Investors are likely to come away with mixed feelings," J.P. Morgan analysts led by Rajat Gupta wrote. "The delay helps near-term cash burn but also suggests delays in investments that matter for fruition of long-term opportunities." The bank said management's comments suggest spending will ramp up in 2027 and 2028 for robotaxi, Optimus, AI compute and Terafab. Reuters said the stock is about 23% below its record intraday high of $498.83 from December 2025 and trades at 188.24 times forward earnings estimates, against 6.58 for Ford and 5.16 for GM. "The risk is Tesla now enters a period of limbo while investors await news on a potential combination with SpaceX," said AJ Bell's Russ Mould.

Update, 7:35 AM PT: CLSA upgrades, Mizuho raises

CLSA upgraded Tesla to Hold from Underperform and raised its target to $400 from $310, citing sentiment around a possible SpaceX merger, Investing.com reported. CLSA said operating income fell 56% year over year to $718 million, below its $966 million estimate but ahead of the $599 million consensus, and that it will update forecasts after the 10-Q is filed. Mizuho raised its target to $460 from $450 and kept an Outperform rating, Benzinga and MarketBeat reported.

Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating, CNBC said. For the full quarter, see our Q3 results story and how the stock moved after hours.