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Tesla Optimus Tracker

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Optimus is between prototype and pilot production. Tesla has converted its Fremont Model S/X line for Optimus and says early builds go to its internal 'Optimus Academy'. Tesla has published no Optimus unit counts; independent reports put August output at several hundred a week. No robots have been sold.

Pilot production

current stage, by our read of the evidence

0

robots sold to outside customers

1M/yr

Fremont line design capacity (Tesla), not a production rate

2H '27

earliest external sales, per Tesla via JPMorgan

CURRENT STAGE

From prototype to product

  1. Done

    Prototype

    Bumble C (2022), Gen 2 (Dec. 2023), 'V2.5' through 2025. Gen 3 ('V3') is Tesla's first design meant for mass production; its public reveal has slipped from Q1 to mid-2026 and still hasn't happened as of late September.

    Sources: Tesla Q4 2025 UpdateElectrek, Sept. 25, 2026

  2. Partly

    Internal factory use

    Tesla says initial builds go to its Optimus Academy for training data. Musk admitted in Jan. 2026 that no Optimus robots were doing useful work; reports say robots inside factories work only in fenced, supervised areas on specific tasks.

    Sources: Tesla Q2 2026 UpdateElectrek, Apr. 22, 2026Electrek, Sept. 25, 2026

  3. Now

    Pilot production (Fremont)

    Fremont's first-generation line, designed for 1 million robots a year, replaced the Model S/X lines. Tesla's Q2 update (July 22) said production would start 'soon' and still listed Optimus as 'Construction'. 'Entered production' headlines in late August are contested; The Information reported several hundred a week in August (unconfirmed by Tesla).

    Sources: Tesla Q2 2026 UpdateAI Shift News, Aug. 31, 2026Electrek, Sept. 25, 2026

  4. Planned

    Volume production (Giga Texas)

    A second-generation line at Giga Texas is designed for long-term capacity of 10 million robots a year; Musk said production there should start around summer 2027.

    Sources: Tesla Q1 2026 UpdateElectrek, Apr. 22, 2026

  5. Planned

    External sales

    None yet. Tesla told JPMorgan external sales could start 'as early as' 2H 2027; The Information reported Tesla plans to lease, not sell, to a short list of companies at first. No price, order page or delivery date.

    Sources: Electrek, Aug. 20, 2026Electrek, Sept. 25, 2026

ON THE RECORD

What Tesla has said

  • Fremont's first-generation line is designed for 1 million robots a year; Giga Texas's second-generation line for 10 million a year (long-term capacity).

    Sources: Tesla Q1 2026 Update

  • Model S/X lines decommissioned; first-generation Optimus lines being installed, 'where we expect to start production soon'; initial builds go to the Optimus Academy.

    Sources: Tesla Q2 2026 Update

  • Gen 3 design finalized, supply chain 'essentially locked in', external sales 'as early as' 2H 2027 (Tesla's claims as relayed by JPMorgan).

    Sources: Electrek

  • No production target for 2026; Musk called the rate 'literally impossible to predict' with 10,000 unique parts.

    Sources: Electrek

INDEPENDENT REPORTING

What's been reported

  • Several hundred Optimus built per week in August, up from a few dozen a week in Q2; target of 1,000+ a week by end of 2026 and about 20,000 a week eventually.

    The Information (paywalled), via Electrek

    Sources: Electrek

  • JPMorgan's Fremont visit found the Optimus area tarped off and no robots deployed there.

    JPMorgan note, via Electrek and AI Shift News

    Sources: ElectrekAI Shift News

  • Hands and forearms hold 100+ hand-assembled parts; touch-sensor reliability problems; a replaceable 'sensing glove' planned for next year; AI can't yet generalize and takes days to learn basic tasks.

    The Information, via Electrek

    Sources: Electrek

PRODUCTION CLAIMS & TARGETS

Promises vs. outcomes

DateWhoClaim or targetWhat happenedSources
Sep. 25, 2026ReportedSeveral hundred a week (August 2026)Unconfirmed by Tesla; no Optimus figures in the Q3 delivery release (Oct. 2).

Sources: ElectrekTesla Q3 2026 P&D (SEC Ex. 99.1)

Apr. 22, 2026TeslaProduction at Fremont to start late July or August 2026; 'quite slow' at first; no 2026 targetTesla still said 'soon' on July 22; start disputed in late August.

Sources: ElectrekTesla Q2 2026 Update

Jan. 28, 2026TeslaStart of production before end of 2026; eventual 1 million robots a year; Gen 3 unveil in Q1 2026Gen 3 reveal slipped to mid-2026, then past it.

Sources: Tesla Q4 2025 UpdateElectrek, Sept. 25, 2026

Jan. 29, 2025Tesla (Musk)Internal plan of ~10,000 robots in 2025; 'several thousand' doing useful work by year-end; third-party sales in 2026Missed. In Jan. 2026 Musk said none were doing useful work.

Sources: Electrek, Jan. 31, 2025Electrek, Apr. 22, 2026

Sep. 30, 2022Tesla (Musk)Price 'probably less than $20,000'; production 'could start as soon as next year' (2023)No price or sale yet.

Sources: The Verge

THE FEED · NEWEST FIRST

Milestones, dated and sourced.

17 entries
  1. Our coverage

    Musk Says Tesla and SpaceX Will Run Terafab Themselves; TSMC Could Only Rent Space, and Intel Says It's Staying

    After reports that TSMC might own and operate the planned Texas chip plant, Musk said his companies will build and run it, with TSMC at most subleasing part of it. Intel's CEO says Intel remains a partner, but the key deal terms are still unpublished. Read our story ↗

    Sources: Quartz: Musk says Tesla, SpaceX will build and run Terafab chip facilityTom's Hardware: Musk rejects rumors of TSMC takeover of Terafab; Intel reaffirms 14A dealTom's Hardware: Musk confirms discussions with TSMC about Terafab

  2. Our coverage

    Musk Rebrands Tesla's AI Group as 'Tesla SI': What the Superintelligence Label Signals for Investors Ahead of Earnings

    Speaking by video at the fan-run X Takeover event at Giga Texas, Elon Musk renamed Tesla's AI team 'Tesla SI,' short for superintelligence, and framed compute, energy and autonomy as one business. Read our story ↗

    Sources: All Things Elon: Musk rebrands Tesla AI team 'Tesla SI' at X TakeoverTeslarati: Tesla's Cybercab fleet jumped 8x in a month, with Dallas up next

  3. Confirmed

    Q3 delivery release has no Optimus numbers

    Tesla's production and deliveries report covered vehicles and storage only; full Q3 results come Oct. 21.

    Sources: Tesla Q3 2026 P&D (SEC Ex. 99.1)

  4. Reported / unconfirmed

    Report: Fremont building several hundred Optimus a week

    The Information says August output was ~10x Q2, mostly for internal training; hands and AI generalization remain bottlenecks. Read our story ↗

    Sources: Electrek

  5. Reported / unconfirmed

    'Optimus enters production' headlines; contested

    Fan and investor outlets said production began at Fremont; Tesla issued no release and JPMorgan had seen no robots on the floor days earlier.

    Sources: All Things ElonAI Shift News (rebuttal)

  6. Reported / unconfirmed

    Tesla tells JPMorgan: external sales as early as 2H 2027

    Tesla said Gen 3 design is final and supply chain largely locked; the Optimus area at Fremont was tarped and no robots were deployed.

    Sources: Electrek

  7. Confirmed

    Q2: S/X lines gone, Optimus lines being installed

    Tesla said it expects to start production 'soon', with first builds going to its Optimus Academy; both Optimus sites listed as 'Construction'.

    Sources: Tesla Q2 2026 Update

  8. Confirmed

    Model S and Model X production ends at Fremont

    The line was torn down to make room for Optimus.

    Sources: Electrek, Apr. 22, 2026Electrek, Sept. 25, 2026

  9. Confirmed

    Q1: 1M-a-year Fremont line, 10M-a-year Texas line; V3 reveal pushed

    Musk targeted a late July/August production start with no 2026 volume target and moved the Gen 3 reveal to 'probably middle of this year'.

    Sources: Tesla Q1 2026 UpdateElectrek

  10. Confirmed

    Q4 2025: Gen 3 is the first design for mass production

    Tesla planned a Q1 Gen 3 unveil and start of production before end of 2026, with eventual capacity of 1 million a year. Musk also said no Optimus were yet doing useful work.

    Sources: Tesla Q4 2025 UpdateElectrek, Apr. 22, 2026

  11. Confirmed

    Musk: ~10,000 Optimus planned for 2025

    He expected 'several thousand' doing useful work by year-end and sales to other companies in 2026. Neither happened.

    Sources: Electrek

  12. Confirmed

    Optimus at 'We, Robot': teleoperated

    Robots served drinks and chatted with guests, but reports said humans remotely controlled many interactions. Musk floated a $20,000-$30,000 price.

    Sources: TechCrunch

  13. Reported / unconfirmed

    Musk: limited production in 2025, 1,000+ in Tesla facilities

    Claimed at the 2024 shareholder meeting, per Wikipedia's summary; it didn't happen.

    Sources: Wikipedia: Optimus (robot)

  14. Confirmed

    Optimus Gen 2 revealed

    Tesla-designed actuators and sensors, 30% faster walking, 10 kg lighter, new hands.

    Sources: Electrek

  15. Confirmed

    Video: Optimus sorts blocks with end-to-end neural nets

    Tesla showed the robot sorting objects autonomously and holding yoga poses.

    Sources: Electrek (recap)Wikipedia: Optimus (robot)

  16. Confirmed

    First walking prototype at AI Day 2022

    'Bumble C' walked untethered on stage for the first time; Musk predicted a price under $20,000.

    Sources: The Verge

  17. Confirmed

    Tesla Bot announced at AI Day

    Musk announced a humanoid robot, shown on stage by a person in a robot suit.

    Sources: Wikipedia: Optimus (robot)The Verge (2022 recap)

Confirmed Tesla filings or posts, regulators, or multiple outlets. Reported / unconfirmed A single outlet, a community tracker, or a claim Tesla hasn't confirmed. Our coverage Tesla News Wire stories in this section, added automatically.

How this tracker works. Every entry links to a source we opened. "Confirmed" means a company filing or post, a government record, or multiple outlets; "reported" means a single outlet, an independent observer or an unconfirmed claim. We don't invent figures. Spot an error or a missing milestone? Tell us. Other trackers: Robotaxi Tracker · FSD Tracker · Giga Texas Tracker · Terafab Tracker.
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