Terafab's First EUV Scanner Reportedly Lands in Mid-2027, but SemiAnalysis Doesn't See Volume Chips Until Mid-2030

Terafab, the chip-making project Tesla is building with SpaceX and xAI, now has a reported date for its most important piece of equipment. Tech journalist Tim Culpan reports, citing people familiar with the matter, that Terafab will receive its first extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography scanner from ASML in mid-2027, according to Tom's Hardware. The same report lays out research firm SemiAnalysis's construction forecasts, and they put volume chip output years away.

A scanner that may have to wait

EUV scanners print the finest features on leading-edge chips, and ASML is the only company that makes them. Tom's Hardware identifies the tool as a conventional Twinscan NXE-series machine. It also notes that Musk has praised experimental free-electron-laser light sources, but that Terafab's first generation will rely on standard equipment because it plans to use Intel's 14A process.

The catch is timing. Tesla broke ground on its research fab on the north campus of Giga Texas in April. SemiAnalysis expects the building to take 15 months and equipment installation another six. Tom's Hardware says that leaves the shell finishing in late 2027, with tools moving in later that year, so the scanner could sit idle for some time after it arrives. Chip Dispatch cautions that a first EUV tool is an equipment milestone, not a capacity figure. Leading-edge fabs run many scanners in parallel.

The big fab: late 2029, volume by mid-2030

For the main Terafab site in Grimes County, SemiAnalysis projects 20 months to build phase 1, 17 months to equip it and six months to ramp. That points to operations beginning in late 2029 and volume output by mid-2030, Tom's Hardware reports. Drone footage from Joe Tegtmeyer in mid-September showed foundation excavation and rebar cages on part of the site, which suggests structural work had started by early September.

That forecast is much later than the official targets. SpaceX has said the site could begin limited operations toward the end of 2027, Spectrum News reported on Sept. 28. State incentive filings reviewed by ENR schedule phase 1 construction for 2026 to 2028, with commercial operations expected in 2028. SemiAnalysis's projections are an outside estimate, not a company schedule, and Tesla and SpaceX have not commented on them.

Tom's Hardware also notes that SpaceX reportedly ordered chipmaking equipment in April 2026, months before naming the Grimes County site. That makes a mid-2028 equipment-installation window plausible given long lead times. For comparison, Intel plans 14A risk production in the second half of 2027 and high-volume manufacturing in the second half of 2028. TSMC is targeting its more advanced A12 process for late 2029. So Terafab would arrive with a proven node rather than the newest one. Tom's Hardware argues that matters less for a fab expected to serve only SpaceX, Tesla and xAI.

What it means for Tesla investors

Musk pitches Terafab as the long-term answer to the chip supply Tesla will need for vehicles, robotaxis and Optimus. If SemiAnalysis is right, Tesla hardware shipping over the next three years will have to use chips made somewhere else, and the Giga Texas research fab, where Musk wants to make and test 10 chip designs a year, will be the first real test. None of the delivery dates have been confirmed by Tesla, SpaceX or ASML. Tesla's Oct. 21 earnings call is the next chance for executives to put their own timeline on the record.