Jefferies has raised its 12-month price target on Tesla to $400 from $350, while keeping its Hold rating, nine days before the company reports third-quarter results. Analyst Philippe Houchois wrote that Tesla's businesses outside of car sales are showing some acceleration, according to a summary of the note from German financial newswire dpa-AFX. The note was first distributed on the evening of Sunday, Oct. 11, Eastern time.

The new target sits about 4.5% above Tesla's last close of $382.70 on Friday, Oct. 9. In other words, even after the raise, Jefferies sees only modest upside, which is consistent with the Hold.

The catch: the car business is still burning cash

The same note carries a sober estimate. Houchois expects Tesla's automotive business to have used roughly $5 billion in cash during the third quarter, dpa-AFX reported. That is Jefferies' projection, not a figure Tesla has published; the company's actual cash flow will be in its Oct. 21 report. It does fit a theme Houchois has pressed all year. In July, he said heavy spending on factories and AI could leave Tesla with negative free cash flow in 2026, TipRanks reported.

dpa-AFX also says investors' attention is centered on a possible merger of Tesla and SpaceX, a subject Jefferies has returned to repeatedly. No such deal has been announced.

A round trip back to $400

This is not the first time Jefferies has been at this number in 2026:

  • July 13: Houchois raised the target to $400 from $375, holding at Hold, after Tesla's second-quarter deliveries beat expectations. He also warned that lower-than-expected Cybercab production pointed to a slower robotaxi rollout, according to TipRanks.
  • Aug. 7: Jefferies cut the target to $350 from $400 after Tesla's Q2 results. It reduced its 2026 operating-profit (EBIT) forecast by 37% to $3.9 billion, saying Q2 operating leverage disappointed, TheFly reported. That note assigned a "high probability of a merger" with SpaceX, suggested a merger might turn Tesla into a tracker stock, and argued that splitting off Tesla's China operations would make sense if it eased a deal, despite Elon Musk's denials.
  • Oct. 11: back to $400, still Hold, citing momentum in the non-auto businesses.

The sources we reviewed don't spell out which non-auto segments drove the latest raise. Tesla's non-auto businesses include energy storage, services and its robotaxi effort. Tesla's Q3 energy storage deployments of 13.7 GWh came in below forecasts, so the energy picture is mixed going into the report.

What it means for investors

The move is a nudge, not a change of heart. Jefferies still rates Tesla a Hold, still models a cash-hungry car business and still treats a SpaceX combination as a live part of the story. The $50 swing in the target in two months mostly shows how much its view depends on Tesla's non-car bets rather than on vehicle profits.

When Tesla reports after the market close on Wednesday, Oct. 21, watch for three things that bear directly on this call: automotive free cash flow against Jefferies' roughly $5 billion burn estimate, whether energy and services revenue keeps growing, and any comment from management on SpaceX. As always, a price target is one firm's opinion, not a forecast we endorse, and nothing here is investment advice.