A year after the federal $7,500 EV tax credit expired, U.S. electric-vehicle sales are climbing again off a lower base, and Tesla still owns the top of the chart. Kelley Blue Book estimates released Monday, Oct. 12, by Cox Automotive put third-quarter EV sales at 266,630, up 7.7% from Q2 and the highest quarterly total since the record rush of Q3 2025. Tesla's Model Y and Model 3 remain Nos. 1 and 2 for the year.

The scoreboard through September

KBB's model rankings through Q3 2026, as reported by Electrek and matching the Cox sales tables:

  • 1. Tesla Model Y: 262,491 U.S. sales year to date (36.0% of the EV segment), down 1.0% from a year earlier. In Q3 alone it sold 99,037.
  • 2. Tesla Model 3: 106,962 YTD (14.7% share), down 31.1% year over year. Q3 sales were 40,346.
  • 3. Hyundai Ioniq 5: 31,112 YTD.
  • 4. Toyota bZ: 24,944 YTD, more than double a year earlier.
  • 5–10: Chevrolet Equinox EV (18,154), Rivian R1S (17,259), Ford Mustang Mach-E (17,206), Rivian EDV 500/700 (15,685), Honda Prologue (13,289), Kia EV9 (12,429).

Across the brand, Tesla sold 144,004 EVs in the U.S. in Q3 and 386,194 year to date, per the KBB tables, for a 54.0% share of Q3 EV sales. Cox says the Model Y accounted for 69% of Tesla's U.S. volume in the quarter and the Model 3 for 28%. The Cybertruck, Model S and Model X make up the rest and do not crack the top 10.

A recovery, not a rebound to the peak

Q3 EV sales were still down 38.6% from a year earlier, when buyers rushed to beat the Sept. 30, 2025, credit deadline. EVs were 6.5% of all new U.S. vehicle sales in Q3, up from 5.8% in Q2 but well below the over-10% share of Q3 2025, Cox reported. Year-to-date EV volume through September is 730,081, down 29.9% from 2025.

"What we're seeing now is a market finding its footing again," Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Cox Automotive's director of industry insights, said in the company's commentary. "The reset phase is largely behind us." She pointed to products, pricing and gas prices "well above $4 a gallon" as the next drivers. Toyota and Lexus EV sales jumped several-fold year over year; Rivian rose 46% and Subaru 31%, Cox said, while nearly every other brand was lower than the inflated 2025 quarter.

What it means for investors

Tesla's global Q3 delivery tally of 486,532, released Oct. 2, already beat Wall Street. These U.S. retail estimates line up with that story: the Model Y is holding share almost flat, the Model 3 is still digesting the post-credit hangover, and Tesla remains more than half the U.S. EV market even with a thinner lineup. Watch for any U.S. mix or ASP color on the Oct. 21 earnings call. KBB figures are estimates, not Tesla's own reported deliveries, and the two series are not identical.