Traders on prediction market Kalshi now see better-than-even odds of a Tesla-SpaceX merger. The chance of a deal before March 2027 jumped to 56% by Friday morning, Oct. 16, up from 29%, CNBC reported. Odds for a merger before April and May rose to similar levels.
No merger has been announced by either company.
What moved the odds
- Barclays note (Wednesday): Analyst Dan Levy said a merger could be announced before Tesla's annual meeting, which must happen by Dec. 6, 2026. We covered it here: Barclays: Tesla-SpaceX merger could be announced by Dec. 6.
- Roadster reveal (Thursday): Tesla showed the new Roadster at SpaceX's test site in McGregor, Texas, using SpaceX-derived thruster tech. Bloomberg called the launch the "latest merger hint."
Musk also spoke of "more and more overlap" between Tesla and SpaceX on Tesla's latest earnings call, CNBC noted.
How Barclays sees a deal
Levy expects any merger may be pitched as AI vertical integration, pairing Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus with SpaceX's Grok and Macrohard, with the Terafab chip project as a possible "key driver."
"Notably, while we suspect there would be some financial synergies, the true value would be in vertical integration," Levy said.
What to keep in mind
The Kalshi contract settles on news reports and SEC EDGAR filings. CNBC disclosed that it has a commercial relationship with Kalshi that includes a minority investment.
Tesla reports Q3 results on Oct. 21.