ARK Says Tesla Stock Could Hit $4,400 by 2031, With Robotaxis Worth 80% of It

ARK Invest now says Tesla stock could be worth about $4,400 a share in 2031. Cathie Wood's firm published an updated, open-source Tesla valuation model on Monday, Oct. 19, 2026, two days before Tesla reports third-quarter results. Its bear and bull cases are about $3,300 and $5,000 a share.

For scale, BeInCrypto notes Tesla closed at $368.06 on Oct. 19, so ARK's base case is nearly 12 times that price.

Robotaxis carry the forecast

"ARK estimates that Robotaxi will account for ~80% of Tesla's enterprise value in 2031, down from ~90% in 2029 as presented in our previous model published in 2024," analysts Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire wrote. They said the reason is that Optimus "Robot-as-a-Service" is likely to take off as robotaxis spread.

ARK's base case for 2031, from its published table:

• Robotaxis: 8.1 million vehicles bringing in $753 billion in net ride-hail revenue.
• Cars sold: 10.2 million, up from 1.6 million in 2025.
• Optimus: 1 million robots sold to outside buyers, for $212 billion in revenue.
• Energy storage: 2,278 GWh deployed and $163 billion in revenue.
• Total revenue: $1,449 billion, with a 61% EBITDA margin and a $17.5 trillion market cap.

The model runs Monte Carlo simulations across 32 inputs, and ARK calls the bull and bear cases the 75th and 25th percentile outcomes. The spreadsheet is free on GitHub.

What could go wrong, by ARK's own account

ARK names a slower robotaxi ramp as the main risk, citing regulatory delays, a sudden departure by Elon Musk, a natural disaster or a pandemic, BeInCrypto reports. ARK's own disclosure says its forecasts reflect its "biases and long-term positive view of the company" and are not investment advice. Its 2024 model had put Tesla at $2,600 a share in 2029.

What to watch: Tesla's Q3 report on Wednesday, Oct. 21, after the close is the next real check on the robotaxi, Optimus and AI-spending inputs ARK relies on. See our Q3 earnings preview, Musk's recent claim that Optimus and Cybercab are the "vast majority" of Tesla's value, and the Robotaxi tracker.