SpaceX reports third-quarter results after the market closes Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2026, then hosts a live audio webcast at 3:30 p.m. CT / 4:30 p.m. ET on X (@SpaceX) and at ir.spacex.com, the company said in an Oct. 16 release. Tesla follows with its own Q3 report on Wednesday, Oct. 21.
What Wall Street is looking for
Bloomberg consensus, as cited by Teslarati via Pepperstone, calls for:
- $12.89 billion in revenue (about 65% growth from Q2)
- $6.62 billion adjusted EBITDA and about $0.15 adjusted EPS
- Roughly $6.4 billion from AI and $4.9 billion from Starlink, with Starlink at about 14.3 million consumer subscribers
- Capex of about $19.6 billion, leaving free cash flow near a negative $11.6 billion
Those figures would mark SpaceX's first profitable quarter since its IPO, Teslarati wrote. In Q2 the company reported $7.8 billion in revenue and 12 million Starlink subscribers, with $18.4 billion of capex. SPCX closed Friday at $146.03, about 28% below its June high after pricing the IPO at $135, Teslarati said.
The Tesla angle
Barclays analyst Dan Levy has told clients an all-stock SpaceX buy of Tesla could still be announced before Tesla's annual meeting, using reference values of about $2.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion. Musk said in July that combining companies "can't" be discussed on an earnings call, Teslarati noted, so a direct answer is unlikely Tuesday. Related: our Tesla Q3 earnings preview and Kalshi merger odds.
Update, Oct. 19: Tesla's proxy materials, filed with the SEC Monday, set the 2026 annual meeting for Thursday, Dec. 3, 2026, at 3:00 p.m. CT, online and at Gigafactory Texas. The ballot has three items: re-electing Elon Musk, Robyn Denholm and JB Straubel; a non-binding say-on-pay vote; and ratifying PwC as auditor.
