Tesla's California registrations fell 15.4% in the third quarter. Tesla registered 43,994 new vehicles in California from July through September 2026, down from 52,005 a year earlier, according to the California New Car Dealers Association's California Auto Outlook covering the third quarter of 2026, released in October and based on Experian Automotive registration data. Tesla's share of the state's new-vehicle market slipped to 9.7% from 11.9%, even as California's overall market grew 3.9% to 454,317 registrations.

Model Y is still California's best-selling vehicle

The Model Y remained the top-selling model in the state through the first nine months of 2026, with 86,099 registrations, well ahead of the Toyota Camry at 52,224 and the Honda Civic at 42,238, the CNCDA report shows. It took 57.9% of California's luxury compact SUV segment.

The Model 3 added 27,303 registrations, leading the near-luxury car segment with a 40.1% share, ahead of the BMW 3-Series at 6,818. The Model S logged 2,043.

Year to date: down 10%, but a bigger slice of a smaller EV market

  • Tesla, January to September: 121,822 registrations, down 10.0% from 135,293. Its share of the total market was 9.3%, down from 9.9%, and the CNCDA lists Toyota, Honda, Tesla, Ford and Chevrolet as the state's market-share leaders.
  • Tesla's share of California zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) registrations rose to 56.5% from 46.4% a year earlier, because most rivals' EV registrations fell much faster.
  • All ZEVs: 215,467 registrations year to date, down 26.1%, for a 16.4% share. In the third quarter alone, ZEVs were 78,478 registrations and a 17.3% share, versus 24.9% in the third quarter of 2025.
  • Hybrids (excluding plug-ins) reached a 22.8% share year to date, well above ZEVs, and 24.1% in the third quarter.
  • California accounted for 28.9% of all U.S. ZEV registrations so far this year, the report says.

The federal EV tax credit expired at the end of September 2025, which pulled EV purchases into the third quarter of last year and makes this year's year-over-year comparison tougher.

On the used market, the CNCDA said Tesla had the largest increase among the top 15 used brands for 5- to 8-year-old vehicles, up 36.9% year to date.

The state's own count looks different

The California Energy Commission, which uses DMV data, said on Oct. 16 that Californians bought 80,392 new ZEVs in the third quarter, including plug-in hybrids, or 19.1% of new car sales. Fully electric cars were 68,811, or 16.3% of sales, compared with 6.4% nationally. The CEC and CNCDA figures are compiled differently and do not match.

The CEC also said its MyFirstEV program, which launched in August 2026, has helped put 12,000 new clean cars on the road. It offers $3,500 off a new EV with an MSRP up to $50,000 and $1,750 off a used EV sold for up to $25,000, for Californians buying their first EV.

What it means for Tesla

The numbers land a day before Tesla reports third-quarter results on Wednesday, Oct. 21, after the market close. Tesla's global deliveries beat estimates in the quarter (see our Q3 deliveries story), and the Model Y and Model 3 again topped U.S. EV sales (Kelley Blue Book Q3 data), but the CNCDA report shows Tesla's registrations in its largest U.S. state market still shrinking. For what to watch on the call, see our Q3 earnings preview.